{"id":2485,"date":"2022-11-10T11:10:23","date_gmt":"2022-11-10T10:10:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/?p=2485"},"modified":"2026-02-19T11:10:40","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T10:10:40","slug":"az-epidemiologiai-surveillance-es-jarvanymatematikai-elorejelzesek-szerepe-a-pandemias-hullamok-megelozeseben-es-mersekleseben-hol-tartunk-most-es-hova-kellene-eljutni-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/2022\/11\/10\/az-epidemiologiai-surveillance-es-jarvanymatematikai-elorejelzesek-szerepe-a-pandemias-hullamok-megelozeseben-es-mersekleseben-hol-tartunk-most-es-hova-kellene-eljutni-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Az epidemiol\u00f3giai surveillance \u00e9s j\u00e1rv\u00e1nymatematikai el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerepe a pand\u00e9mi\u00e1s hull\u00e1mok megel\u0151z\u00e9s\u00e9ben \u00e9s m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u00e9s\u00e9ben \u2013 hol tartunk most, \u00e9s hov\u00e1 kellene eljutni"},"content":{"rendered":"

A 2021-es COVID-19 pand\u00e9mia id\u0151szak\u00e1ban a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny dinamik\u00e1ja folyamatosan v\u00e1ltozott, az el\u00e9rhet\u0151 olt\u00f3anyagok k\u00f6re pedig b\u0151v\u00fclt. A pand\u00e9mia alatt az egyes olt\u00f3anyagok \u00e1ltal ny\u00fajtott v\u00e9delem m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9nek meghat\u00e1roz\u00e1sa azonban kih\u00edv\u00e1st jelentett az eddig ismert, hagyom\u00e1nyos epidemiol\u00f3giai m\u00f3dszerekkel, mivel ezek egyr\u00e9szt id\u0151ig\u00e9nyesek, m\u00e1sr\u00e9szt kiterjedt adatgy\u0171jt\u00e9st \u00e9s jelent\u0151s hum\u00e1ner\u0151forr\u00e1st ig\u00e9nyelnek. Ez\u00e9rt olyan \u00faj megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s alkalmaz\u00e1sa v\u00e1lt sz\u00fcks\u00e9gess\u00e9, amely a rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3, rutinszer\u0171en gy\u0171jt\u00f6tt adatok felhaszn\u00e1l\u00e1s\u00e1val gyors, val\u00f3s idej\u0171 becsl\u00e9st ad a v\u00e9d\u0151olt\u00e1sok teljes n\u00e9pess\u00e9gre vonatkoz\u00f3 eredm\u00e9nyess\u00e9g\u00e9r\u0151l.<\/p>\n

A COVID\u201119 elleni olt\u00e1sok k\u00f6zel val\u00f3s idej\u0171 eredm\u00e9nyess\u00e9g\u00e9nek vizsg\u00e1lat\u00e1ra ez\u00e9rt egy erre a c\u00e9lra kev\u00e9ss\u00e9 alkalmazott technik\u00e1t, a screening<\/em> m\u00f3dszert v\u00e1lasztottuk. A m\u00f3dszer l\u00e9nyege, hogy a teljes n\u00e9pess\u00e9g oltotts\u00e1gi ar\u00e1ny\u00e1t \u00f6sszehasonlottuk a laborat\u00f3riumilag igazolt COVID-19 betegek oltotts\u00e1gi ar\u00e1ny\u00e1val. A k\u00e9t \u00e9rt\u00e9k k\u00f6z\u00f6tti elt\u00e9r\u00e9sb\u0151l k\u00f6vetkeztett\u00fcnk az olt\u00e1sok fert\u0151z\u00e9sekkel szembeni v\u00e9d\u0151hat\u00e1s\u00e1ra popul\u00e1ci\u00f3s szinten. A v\u00e9d\u0151olt\u00e1s-eredm\u00e9nyess\u00e9g (VE) id\u0151beli alakul\u00e1s\u00e1t orsz\u00e1gos szinten sz\u00e1moltuk ki statisztikai m\u00f3dszerekkel, heti bont\u00e1sban, korcsoportonk\u00e9nt \u00e9s olt\u00f3anyagonk\u00e9nt (alfa \u00e9s delta SARS-CoV-2 vari\u00e1nsok elleni olt\u00f3anyagok: Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V, Janssen \u00e9s Sinopharm).<\/p>\n

Az eredm\u00e9nyek alapj\u00e1n minden vizsg\u00e1lt olt\u00f3anyag v\u00e9delmet ny\u00fajtott a COVID-19 megbeteged\u00e9s ellen, vagyis a fert\u0151z\u00f6ttek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt az oltottak ar\u00e1nya mindig alacsonyabb volt, mint a teljes n\u00e9pess\u00e9gben. Ugyanakkor elt\u00e9r\u0151 VE-t m\u00e9rt\u00fcnk az egyes olt\u00f3anyagok tekintet\u00e9ben, valamint az \u00e9rt\u00e9kek cs\u00f6kkentek az olt\u00e1s \u00f3ta eltelt id\u0151 f\u00fcggv\u00e9ny\u00e9ben. Ez a cs\u00f6kken\u00e9si \u00fctem azonban az alapimmuniz\u00e1l\u00e1st k\u00f6vet\u0151en adott eml\u00e9keztet\u0151 olt\u00e1ssal visszaford\u00edthat\u00f3 volt, a v\u00e9delem m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke ism\u00e9t emelkedett azokn\u00e1l, akik meger\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 olt\u00e1sban r\u00e9szes\u00fcltek.<\/p>\n

Vizsg\u00e1latunk eredm\u00e9nyei meger\u0151s\u00edtik a v\u00e9d\u0151olt\u00e1sok kiemelt jelent\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9t a COVID-19 elleni v\u00e9dekez\u00e9sben. Az elv\u00e9gzett elemz\u00e9sek alapj\u00e1n k\u00e9pet kaphatunk a v\u00e9d\u0151olt\u00e1sok id\u0151ben v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3 eredm\u00e9nyess\u00e9g\u00e9r\u0151l, az eml\u00e9keztet\u0151 olt\u00e1sok \u00e1ltal kiv\u00e1ltott v\u00e9detts\u00e9g m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9r\u0151l, az olt\u00f3anyag-specifikus eredm\u00e9nyek pedig c\u00e9lzott olt\u00e1si strat\u00e9gi\u00e1k kidolgoz\u00e1s\u00e1t teszik lehet\u0151v\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Mindezek alapj\u00e1n a screening m\u00f3dszer megfelel\u0151nek bizonyult a v\u00e9d\u0151olt\u00e1sok eredm\u00e9nyess\u00e9g\u00e9nek gyors \u00e9s teljes n\u00e9pess\u00e9gre kiterjed\u0151 \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9s\u00e9re. B\u00e1r a m\u00f3dszer nem helyettes\u00edti a r\u00e9szletes egy\u00e9ni adatokra \u00e9p\u00fcl\u0151 elemz\u00e9seket, j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyhelyzetben m\u00e9gis el\u0151ny\u00f6s lehet az alkalmaz\u00e1sa, mert r\u00e9szletes \u00e9s id\u0151ig\u00e9nyes vizsg\u00e1latok elv\u00e9gz\u00e9se n\u00e9lk\u00fcl is el\u0151seg\u00edti a szakmailag megalapozott d\u00f6nt\u00e9shozatalt.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u00e1bra: <\/strong>A laborat\u00f3riumilag igazolt COVID-19 elleni VE (v\u00e9d\u0151olt\u00e1s-eredm\u00e9nyess\u00e9g) alakul\u00e1sa az id\u0151 el\u0151rehaladt\u00e1val, hetente, korcsoportonk\u00e9nt \u00e9s az els\u0151dleges olt\u00e1si sorozat olt\u00f3anyag\u00e1nak t\u00edpusa szerint, Magyarorsz\u00e1g, 2021. 20\u201352. h\u00e9t<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    (A Janssen vakcin\u00e1val oltott vagy 18 \u00e9v alatti fert\u0151z\u00f6ttek alacsony sz\u00e1ma miatt a hozz\u00e1 tartoz\u00f3 VE-\u00e9rt\u00e9kek az \u00e1br\u00e1n nem szerepelnek, sz\u00e1mszer\u0171en Kieg\u00e9sz\u00edt\u0151 T\u00e1bl\u00e1zatokb\u00f3l S2\u2013S4. \u00e9rhet\u0151 el.)<\/span><\/p>\n

    A r\u00f6vid\u00edt\u00e9sek megegyeznek az 1. \u00e1br\u00e1ban szerepl\u0151kkel. A sz\u00ednezett ter\u00fcletek a 95%-os konfidenciaintervallumot jelzik. Az eml\u00e9keztet\u0151 d\u00f3zisok \u00e1ltal kiv\u00e1ltott hat\u00e1s kezdete a 33. h\u00e9tt\u0151l f\u00fcgg\u0151leges fekete vonal jel\u00f6li, ett\u0151l kezdve az eredm\u00e9nyek nem csup\u00e1n a megadott els\u0151dleges olt\u00f3anyagra vonatkoznak, hanem az els\u0151dleges vakcina \u00e9s az eml\u00e9keztet\u0151 ismeretlen kombin\u00e1ci\u00f3j\u00e1ra. Az eml\u00e9keztet\u0151 d\u00f3zisok szinte kiz\u00e1r\u00f3lag mRNS-vakcin\u00e1k voltak (1. \u00e1bra).<\/p>\n

    Forr\u00e1s: Vaccines (Basel). 2022 Oct 29;10(11):1824. doi: 10.3390\/vaccines10111824 publik\u00e1ci\u00f3 2. \u00e1br\u00e1ja alapj\u00e1n SE ESK saj\u00e1t szerkeszt\u00e9s<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/h3>\n

    The role of epidemiological surveillance and mathematical forecasting in preventing and mitigating pandemic waves \u2013 what has been accomplished and what should be achieved<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Judit K. Horv\u00e1th\u00b9 \u00b2 \u00b3, Tam\u00e1s Ferenci\u00b2 \u00b3 \u2074, Annam\u00e1ria Ferenczi\u00b9 \u00b2 \u00b3, Gerg\u0151 T\u00fari\u00b9 \u00b2 \u00b3, Gergely R\u00f6st\u00b2 \u00b3 \u2076, Beatrix Oroszi\u00b9 \u00b2 \u00b3<\/em><\/p>\n

    \u00b9 Epidemiology and Surveillance Centre, Semmelweis University
    \n\u00b2 Mathematical Modelling and Epidemiology Task Force
    \n\u00b3 National Laboratory for Health Security
    \n\u2074 Physiological Controls Research Center, \u00d3buda University
    \n\u2075 Department of Statistics, Corvinus University of Budapest
    \n\u2076 Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged<\/p>\n

    Summary
    \n<\/strong>Several studies have reported the waning effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. This study aims to demonstrate the applicability of the screening method for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) in a pandemic. We report VE in Hungary, estimated with the screening method, in 2021, covering a period of Alpha and the Delta variant, including the booster dose roll-out. Hungary is in a unique position to use six different vaccines in the same population. All vaccines provided a high level of protection initially, which declined over time. While the picture is different in each age group, the waning of immunity is apparent for all vaccines, especially in the younger age groups and the Sinopharm, Sputnik-V, and AstraZeneca vaccines, which performed similarly. This is clearly reversed by booster doses, more prominent for those three vaccines, where the decline in protection is more evident. Overall, two vaccines, Pfizer\/BioNTech and Moderna, tend to produce the best results in all age groups, even with waning immunity considered. Using the screening method in future pandemic waves is worthwhile, especially in countries struggling with a lack of resources or when there is a need to deliver VE results within a short timeframe due to urgent decision-making.<\/p>\n

    Horv\u00e1th JK, Ferenci T, Ferenczi A, T\u00fari G, R\u00f6st G, Oroszi B. Real-Time Monitoring of the Effectiveness of Six COVID-19 Vaccines against Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in Hungary in 2021 Using the Screening Method. Vaccines (Basel). 2022 Oct 29;10(11):1824. doi: 10.3390\/vaccines10111824. PMID: 36366334; PMCID: PMC9697606.<\/span><\/p>\n

    https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/36366334\/<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

    K\u00e9sz\u00edtette az \"\"\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/em>RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A 2021-es COVID-19 pand\u00e9mia id\u0151szak\u00e1ban a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny dinamik\u00e1ja folyamatosan v\u00e1ltozott, az el\u00e9rhet\u0151 olt\u00f3anyagok k\u00f6re pedig b\u0151v\u00fclt. A pand\u00e9mia alatt az egyes olt\u00f3anyagok \u00e1ltal ny\u00fajtott v\u00e9delem m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9nek meghat\u00e1roz\u00e1sa azonban kih\u00edv\u00e1st jelentett az eddig ismert, hagyom\u00e1nyos epidemiol\u00f3giai m\u00f3dszerekkel, mivel ezek egyr\u00e9szt id\u0151ig\u00e9nyesek, m\u00e1sr\u00e9szt kiterjedt adatgy\u0171jt\u00e9st \u00e9s jelent\u0151s hum\u00e1ner\u0151forr\u00e1st ig\u00e9nyelnek. Ez\u00e9rt olyan \u00faj megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s alkalmaz\u00e1sa v\u00e1lt sz\u00fcks\u00e9gess\u00e9, amely …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102284,"featured_media":2486,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikk-osszefoglalok"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102284"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2485"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2485\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2488,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2485\/revisions\/2488"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}