{"id":2459,"date":"2021-08-01T13:14:52","date_gmt":"2021-08-01T11:14:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/?p=2459"},"modified":"2026-01-13T13:34:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T12:34:31","slug":"az-epidemiologiai-surveillance-es-jarvanymatematikai-elorejelzesek-szerepe-a-pandemias-hullamok-megelozeseben-es-mersekleseben-hol-tartunk-most-es-hova-kellene-eljutni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/2021\/08\/01\/az-epidemiologiai-surveillance-es-jarvanymatematikai-elorejelzesek-szerepe-a-pandemias-hullamok-megelozeseben-es-mersekleseben-hol-tartunk-most-es-hova-kellene-eljutni\/","title":{"rendered":"Az epidemiol\u00f3giai surveillance \u00e9s j\u00e1rv\u00e1nymatematikai el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerepe a pand\u00e9mi\u00e1s hull\u00e1mok megel\u0151z\u00e9s\u00e9ben \u00e9s m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u00e9s\u00e9ben \u2013 hol tartunk most, \u00e9s hov\u00e1 kellene eljutni"},"content":{"rendered":"

A J\u00e1rv\u00e1nymatematikai \u00e9s Epidemiol\u00f3giai Projekt egy Magyarorsz\u00e1gon egyed\u00fcl\u00e1ll\u00f3 kezdem\u00e9nyez\u00e9s, amely a COVID\u201319 vil\u00e1gj\u00e1rv\u00e1ny sor\u00e1n jelent\u0151s tud\u00e1st \u00e9s tapasztalatot halmozott fel. Jelen tanulm\u00e1ny a pand\u00e9mia m\u00e1sodik hull\u00e1m\u00e1nak p\u00e9ld\u00e1j\u00e1n kereszt\u00fcl tekinti \u00e1t, mik\u00e9nt m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00f6tt a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny\u00fcgyi \u00e9szlel\u00e9s \u00e9s monitoroz\u00e1s rendszere, hogyan \u00e9s milyen eredm\u00e9nyekkel v\u00e9gezt\u00e9k a projekt munkat\u00e1rsai a helyzet- \u00e9s kock\u00e1zat\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9st, valamint az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek k\u00e9sz\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9t, \u00e9s v\u00e9g\u00fcl javaslatokat fogalmaz meg a surveillance- \u00e9s el\u0151rejelz\u0151 rendszer fejleszt\u00e9s\u00e9re a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny\u00fcgyi biztons\u00e1g n\u00f6vel\u00e9se \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n

A m\u00e1sodik j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyhull\u00e1m 2020. j\u00fanius 22. \u00e9s 2021. janu\u00e1r 24. k\u00f6z\u00f6tt zajlott Magyarorsz\u00e1gon, amelynek sor\u00e1n a meger\u0151s\u00edtett COVID\u201319 esetek sz\u00e1ma 356 197 f\u0151 volt, ami az els\u0151 hull\u00e1mban regisztr\u00e1lt esetsz\u00e1m 87-szeres\u00e9nek felelt meg. \u00d6sszesen 12 226 meger\u0151s\u00edtett COVID\u201319 hal\u00e1lesetet regisztr\u00e1ltak, ami az els\u0151 hull\u00e1mban jelentett sz\u00e1m 21-szerese. Az orsz\u00e1gos R \u00e9rt\u00e9k el\u0151sz\u00f6r 2020 augusztus\u00e1ban emelkedett 1,0 f\u00f6l\u00e9, \u00e9s mintegy h\u00e1rom h\u00e9ttel azt k\u00f6vet\u0151en, hogy augusztus utols\u00f3 het\u00e9ben tart\u00f3san 1,0 felett maradt, a hal\u00e1los kimenetel\u0171 COVID\u201319 esetek sz\u00e1ma is n\u00f6veked\u00e9snek indult, mivel a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny a fiatalabb koroszt\u00e1lyokr\u00f3l az id\u0151sebbekre is \u00e1tterjedt. Ezt a folyamatot a matematikai modellez\u00e9si eredm\u00e9nyek m\u00e1r hetekkel kor\u00e1bban jelezt\u00e9k.<\/p>\n

November elej\u00e9n az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek 12 000 f\u0151t meghalad\u00f3 k\u00f3rh\u00e1zi \u00e1poltsz\u00e1mot vet\u00edtettek el\u0151re a kar\u00e1csonyi id\u0151szakra, amelynek elker\u00fcl\u00e9se \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben korm\u00e1nyzati int\u00e9zked\u00e9scsomagot dolgoztak ki. A 2020. november 11-\u00e9n bevezetett szigor\u00edt\u00e1sok elt\u00e9r\u00edtett\u00e9k a j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyt az eredeti p\u00e1ly\u00e1r\u00f3l, \u00edgy a k\u00f3rh\u00e1zban kezeltek sz\u00e1ma a m\u00e1sodik hull\u00e1mban az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9seknek megfelel\u0151en 8018 f\u0151n\u00e9l \u00e9rte el a cs\u00facspontj\u00e1t, majd cs\u00f6kken\u00e9snek indult. Janu\u00e1r elej\u00e9n a modellez\u00e9s azt is jelezte, hogy a lecseng\u0151 szakaszban, az akkor \u00e9rv\u00e9nyben l\u00e9v\u0151 int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek mellett is k\u00e9pes j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny\u00fcgyi fordulatot okozni az id\u0151k\u00f6zben Magyarorsz\u00e1gon is megjelent, gyorsabban terjed\u0151 SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 vari\u00e1ns, ami k\u00e9s\u0151bb be is k\u00f6vetkezett.<\/p>\n

\u00d6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben az epidemiol\u00f3giai helyzet\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9s \u00e9s a matematikai modellez\u00e9s k\u00e9pes volt a m\u00e1sodik hull\u00e1m minden f\u0151 aspektus\u00e1t id\u0151ben \u00e9s pontosan megragadni, a vesz\u00e9lyes folyamatokat el\u0151re jelezni, \u00e9s ezzel lehet\u0151s\u00e9get biztos\u00edtani a gyors reag\u00e1l\u00e1sra. A m\u00e1sodik hull\u00e1m tapasztalatai r\u00e1vil\u00e1g\u00edtottak arra, hogy a j\u00e1rv\u00e1nymatematikai \u00e9s epidemiol\u00f3giai k\u00e9pess\u00e9gek jelent\u0151s hozz\u00e1adott \u00e9rt\u00e9ket k\u00e9pviselnek a d\u00f6nt\u00e9st\u00e1mogat\u00e1sban. Az \u00e9szlel\u00e9si \u00e9s el\u0151rejelz\u00e9si rendszerek meger\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9se, valamint a matematikai modellez\u00e9ssel egys\u00e9ges keretrendszerben t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 tov\u00e1bbfejleszt\u00e9se tov\u00e1bbi lehet\u0151s\u00e9geket nyithat meg az \u00e9szlel\u00e9s, a megel\u0151z\u00e9s, valamint az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi \u00e9s gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rok elh\u00e1r\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1t c\u00e9lz\u00f3 d\u00f6nt\u00e9si folyamatok bizony\u00edt\u00e9kalap\u00fa t\u00e1mogat\u00e1s\u00e1ban, \u00e9s hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rulhat Magyarorsz\u00e1g j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny\u00fcgyi biztons\u00e1g\u00e1nak n\u00f6vel\u00e9s\u00e9hez.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u00e1bra: Meger\u0151s\u00edtett COVID\u201319 esetek (a fert\u0151z\u00e9s igazol\u00e1s\u00e1nak d\u00e1tuma alapj\u00e1n) \u00e9s hal\u00e1lesetek sz\u00e1ma (a hal\u00e1loz\u00e1s ideje alapj\u00e1n), valamint a fontosabb korm\u00e1nyzati int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek a 2. j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyhull\u00e1m idej\u00e9n, Magyarorsz\u00e1g, 2020. j\u00fanius 22. \u2013 2021. janu\u00e1r 24.<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Forr\u00e1s: Oroszi \u00e9s mtsai. Az epidemiol\u00f3giai surveillance \u00e9s j\u00e1rv\u00e1nymatematikai el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerepe a pand\u00e9mi\u00e1s hull\u00e1mok megel\u0151z\u00e9s\u00e9ben \u00e9s m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u00e9s\u00e9ben \u2013 hol tartunk most, \u00e9s hov\u00e1 kellene eljutni. N\u00e9peg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgy. 2022;99(1). pp. 6\u201319., 14 p. publik\u00e1ci\u00f3 1. \u00e1br\u00e1ja<\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The role of epidemiological surveillance and mathematical forecasting in preventing and mitigating pandemic waves \u2013 what has been accomplished and what should be achieved<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Beatrix Oroszi<\/em> (Semmelweis University, Epidemiology and Surveillance Centre, Budapest, Hungary)
    \nKrisztina J. Horv\u00e1th<\/em> (Semmelweis University, Epidemiology and Surveillance Centre, Budapest, Hungary)
    \nGerg\u0151 T\u00fari<\/em> (Semmelweis University, Epidemiology and Surveillance Centre, Budapest, Hungary)
    \nKatalin Krisztalovics<\/em> (Semmelweis University, Epidemiology and Surveillance Centre, Budapest, Hungary)
    \nGergely R\u00f6st<\/em> (University of Szeged, Bolyai Institute, Szeged, Hungary)<\/p>\n

    Summary<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    The Mathematical Modelling and Epidemiology Task Force is a unique initiative in Hungary that has accumulated significant knowledge and experience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the example of the second wave of the pandemic, the present study reviews how the epidemiological surveillance and monitoring system operated, how the task force carried out situation and risk assessments as well as forecasting, and finally makes suggestions for improving the surveillance and forecasting system in order to increase health security.<\/p>\n

    The second wave of the pandemic lasted between 22 June 2020 and 24 January 2021 in Hungary, during which the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 356,197, representing 87 times the number registered in the first wave. A total of 12,226 confirmed COVID-19 deaths were recorded, 21 times the number reported in the first wave. The reproduction number first exceeded 1.0 in early August 2020, and approximately three weeks after the R value remained consistently above 1.0 in the last week of August, the number of fatal COVID-19 cases began to increase as the epidemic spread from younger to older age groups. These developments had been predicted by mathematical modelling results several weeks earlier.<\/p>\n

    In early November, forecasts projected more than 12,000 hospitalized patients for the Christmas period, prompting the government to introduce new measures to prevent this surge. The restrictions implemented on 11 November 2020 diverted the epidemic from its original trajectory, and as projected, the number of hospital admissions in the second wave peaked at 8,018 before beginning to decline. In January, the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant was detected in Hungary, and modelling conducted in early January indicated that even during the declining phase, and despite the measures in place, this new variant was capable of altering the epidemiological trend. This prediction was confirmed on 24 January, when the epidemic curve began to rise again.<\/p>\n

    Overall, epidemiological situation assessment and mathematical modelling were able to capture all significant aspects of the second wave in a timely and accurate manner, predicting potentially dangerous changes and thereby providing opportunities for rapid response. The experience of the second wave demonstrated the added value of integrating comprehensive epidemiological analysis and mathematical modelling into decision-making, and strengthening epidemiological intelligence and forecasting systems within a unified framework may further enhance evidence-based support for public health decision-making.<\/p>\n

    Oroszi \u00e9s mtsai. Az epidemiol\u00f3giai surveillance \u00e9s j\u00e1rv\u00e1nymatematikai el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerepe a pand\u00e9mi\u00e1s hull\u00e1mok megel\u0151z\u00e9s\u00e9ben, m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u00e9s\u00e9ben \u2013 hol tartunk most, \u00e9s hov\u00e1 kellene eljutni. Scientia et Securitas. 2021;2(1):38\u201353. DOI: 10.1556\/112.2021.00007.<\/span><\/p>\n

    https:\/\/akjournals.com\/view\/journals\/112\/2\/1\/article-p38.xml<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

    K\u00e9sz\u00edtette az \"\"\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/em>RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A J\u00e1rv\u00e1nymatematikai \u00e9s Epidemiol\u00f3giai Projekt egy Magyarorsz\u00e1gon egyed\u00fcl\u00e1ll\u00f3 kezdem\u00e9nyez\u00e9s, amely a COVID\u201319 vil\u00e1gj\u00e1rv\u00e1ny sor\u00e1n jelent\u0151s tud\u00e1st \u00e9s tapasztalatot halmozott fel. Jelen tanulm\u00e1ny a pand\u00e9mia m\u00e1sodik hull\u00e1m\u00e1nak p\u00e9ld\u00e1j\u00e1n kereszt\u00fcl tekinti \u00e1t, mik\u00e9nt m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00f6tt a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny\u00fcgyi \u00e9szlel\u00e9s \u00e9s monitoroz\u00e1s rendszere, hogyan \u00e9s milyen eredm\u00e9nyekkel v\u00e9gezt\u00e9k a projekt munkat\u00e1rsai a helyzet- \u00e9s kock\u00e1zat\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9st, valamint az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek k\u00e9sz\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9t, \u00e9s …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102284,"featured_media":2460,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikk-osszefoglalok"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102284"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2459"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2459\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2463,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2459\/revisions\/2463"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/esk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}