{"id":24155,"date":"2024-10-31T13:46:44","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T12:46:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/?p=24155"},"modified":"2024-12-18T14:02:29","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T13:02:29","slug":"a-dohanyzas-hatasainak-elorejelzese-2022-es-2050-kozott","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/2024\/10\/31\/a-dohanyzas-hatasainak-elorejelzese-2022-es-2050-kozott\/","title":{"rendered":"A doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1s hat\u00e1sainak el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se 2022 \u00e9s 2050 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt: az elvesztett \u00e9let\u00e9vek \u00e9s a v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u00e9lettartam v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Az emberi viselked\u00e9s legnagyobb kock\u00e1zati t\u00e9nyez\u0151je a <strong>doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1s<\/strong>, amely 1990 \u00e9s 2021 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt t\u00f6bb mint 175 milli\u00f3 hal\u00e1leset\u00e9rt \u00e9s k\u00f6zel 4,3 milli\u00e1rd elvesztett \u00e9let\u00e9v\u00e9rt felel\u0151s. Az ut\u00f3bbi \u00e9vekben azonban sok orsz\u00e1gban lelassult a doh\u00e1nyz\u00f3k sz\u00e1m\u00e1nak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se, \u00e9s b\u00e1r a doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1smentes gener\u00e1ci\u00f3k \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben sz\u00e1mos javaslat sz\u00fcletett, eddig egyik sem val\u00f3sult meg. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Int\u00e9zet\u00fcnk munkat\u00e1rsai, <a href=\"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/oktatas\/munkatarsak-oktatoi-csapat\/gaal-peter-dr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>dr. Ga\u00e1l P\u00e9ter<\/strong><\/a> \u00e9s <a href=\"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/oktatas\/munkatarsak-oktatoi-csapat\/joo-tamas-dr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>dr. Jo\u00f3 Tam\u00e1s<\/strong><\/a> t\u00e1rsszerz\u0151i voltak a <strong>The Lancet<\/strong> foly\u00f3irat 2024 okt\u00f3ber\u00e9ben kiadott <strong>Public Health<\/strong> k\u00fcl\u00f6nsz\u00e1m\u00e1ban megjelent, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">nemzetk\u00f6zi egy\u00fcttm\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9sben sz\u00fcletett a tanulm\u00e1ny<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">nak, a<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">mely<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> el\u0151revet\u00edti, hogyan v\u00e1ltozhat a doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1s \u00e9s az annak k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben <strong>elvesztett \u00e9let\u00e9vek<\/strong> sz\u00e1ma, ha folytat\u00f3dnak a jelenlegi trendek, illetve milyen hat\u00e1sokkal j\u00e1rhatnak a tov\u00e1bbi doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1scs\u00f6kkent\u0151 int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A kutat\u00e1s h\u00e1rom szcen\u00e1ri\u00f3t vizsg\u00e1lt 204 orsz\u00e1gra vonatkoz\u00f3an, nemekre \u00e9s \u00f6t \u00e9ves korcsoportokra lebontva. Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek figyelembe veszik a doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1s el\u0151fordul\u00e1s\u00e1t, intenzit\u00e1s\u00e1t, id\u0151tartam\u00e1t, valamint a doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1sr\u00f3l val\u00f3 leszok\u00e1s kock\u00e1zatcs\u00f6kkent\u0151 hat\u00e1s\u00e1t. A kutat\u00e1s egy \u00faj el\u0151rejelz\u00e9si keretrendszert alkalmazott, amely dinamikusan integr\u00e1lja a demogr\u00e1fiai v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sokat \u00e9s az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9get befoly\u00e1sol\u00f3 egy\u00e9b t\u00e9nyez\u0151ket.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A legfontosabb meg\u00e1llap\u00edt\u00e1sok szerint <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2012<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> ha a jelenlegi doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1si trendek folytat\u00f3dnak <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2012<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> az \u00e9let\u00e9vek elveszt\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u00fcteme tov\u00e1bbra is jelent\u0151s marad. A <a href=\"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/szakertoi-tevekenyseg-projektek\/futo-projektek\/dohanyzasmentes-magyarorszagert\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1s visszaszor\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1ra ir\u00e1nyul\u00f3<\/a> agressz\u00edvabb int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek viszont nagyon jelent\u0151s eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi el\u0151ny\u00f6ket hozhatnak.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A tanulm\u00e1ny hangs\u00falyozza, hogy a jelenlegi doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1si szab\u00e1lyoz\u00e1sok helyett <strong>glob\u00e1lisan \u00fajabb, m\u00e9g szigor\u00fabb doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1sellenes int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek<\/strong>et kell bevezetni annak \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben, hogy a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vtizedekben ne n\u00f6vekedjen a doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1ssal kapcsolatos eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi terhek m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke, meg\u0151rizhess\u00fck az eddigi pozit\u00edv v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sokat, \u00e9s cs\u00f6kkenjenek a doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1s miatt elvesztett \u00e9let\u00e9vek.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fontos_div w-100\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A teljes cikk erre a linkre kattintva \u00e9rhet\u0151 el: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanpub\/article\/PIIS2468-2667(24)00166-X\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az emberi viselked\u00e9s legnagyobb kock\u00e1zati t\u00e9nyez\u0151je a doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1s, amely 1990 \u00e9s 2021 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt t\u00f6bb mint 175 milli\u00f3 hal\u00e1leset\u00e9rt \u00e9s k\u00f6zel 4,3 milli\u00e1rd elvesztett \u00e9let\u00e9v\u00e9rt felel\u0151s. Az ut\u00f3bbi \u00e9vekben azonban sok orsz\u00e1gban lelassult a doh\u00e1nyz\u00f3k sz\u00e1m\u00e1nak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se, \u00e9s b\u00e1r a doh\u00e1nyz\u00e1smentes gener\u00e1ci\u00f3k \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben sz\u00e1mos javaslat sz\u00fcletett, eddig egyik sem val\u00f3sult meg. Int\u00e9zet\u00fcnk munkat\u00e1rsai, <a href=\"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/oktatas\/munkatarsak-oktatoi-csapat\/gaal-peter-dr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dr. Ga\u00e1l P\u00e9ter<\/a> \u00e9s <a href=\"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/oktatas\/munkatarsak-oktatoi-csapat\/joo-tamas-dr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dr. Jo\u00f3 Tam\u00e1s<\/a> t\u00e1rsszerz\u0151i voltak &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102350,"featured_media":24158,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[266,517],"class_list":["post-24155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hirek","tag-dohanyzas","tag-the-lancet"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102350"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24155"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24155\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24159,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24155\/revisions\/24159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/semmelweis.hu\/emk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}